When is rain predicted to arrive?A.MondayB.TuesdayC.WednesdayD.Sunday
When is rain predicted to arrive?
A.Monday
B.Tuesday
C.Wednesday
D.Sunday
When is rain predicted to arrive?
A.Monday
B.Tuesday
C.Wednesday
D.Sunday
第1题
Forecasting Methods
There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast.The method a forecaster chooses depends upon the experience of the forecaster, the amount of information available to the forecaster, the.level of difficulty that the forecast situation presents,and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast.
The first of these methods is the persistence method; the, simplest of producing .a forecast.The persistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change.For example, if it is sunny and 37 degrees today, the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 37 degrees tomorrow.If two inches of rain fell today, the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow.However, if weather conditions change significantly from day to day, the persistence method usually breaks down and is not the best forecasting method to use.
The trends method involves determining the speed and direction of movement for fronts, high and low pressure centers, and areas of clouds and precipitation (降雨量).U-sing this information, the forecaster can predict where he or she expects those features to be at some future time For example, if a storm system is 1000 miles west of your location and moving to the east at 250 miles per day, using the trends method you would predict it to arrive in your area in 4 days.The trends method works well when systems continue to move at the same speed in the same direction for a long period of time.If they slow down,
speed up, change intensity, or change direction, the trends forecast will .probably not work as well.
The climatology (气候学) method is another simple way of producing a forecast.This method involves averaging weather statistics accumulated over many years to make the forecast.For example, if you were using the climatology method to predict the weather for New York City on July 4th, you would go through all the weather data that has been recorded for every July 4th and take an average.The climatology method only works well when the weather pattern is similar to that expected for the chosen time of year.If the pattern is quite unusual for the given time of year,the climatology method will often fail.
The analog method(类推法)is a slightly more complicated method of producing a forecast.It involves examining today's forecast scenario and remembering a day in the past when the weather scenario(天气状况)looked very similar (an analog).The forecaster would predict that the weather in this forecast will behave the same as it did in the past.The analogy method is difficult to use because it is virtually impossible to find a predict analog.Various weather features rarely align themselves in the same locations they were in the previous time.Even small differences between the current time and the analog can lead to very different results.
第 41 题 What factor is NOT mentioned in choosing a forecasting method?
A.Imagination of the forecaster.
B.Necessary amount of information.
C.Practical knowledge of the forecaster.
D.Degree of difficulty involved in forecasting.
第2题
听力原文:M: It looks like we are going to have a shower at any minute now.
W: I think so too. Isn't it strange how you can sense it?
M: I know what you mean.
W: Look at the clouds in the sky. Whenever they seem dark and low like this, you know it's going to rain, or look at the object that's far away, if it seems clear to you, it's probably going to pour.
M: Yes, and everything seems to have a strange smell to me then.
W: I know, and people often say it's going to rain when they have aches or pains in certain parts of their body. My mother always complains that her knee hurts just before a storm.
M: And have you noticed how the animals act before a storm?
W: Sure, horses and cows will seem to go to a protected area and huddle together.
M: Yeah, but with all these sensible signs, how come we aren't carrying our umbrella with us now?
(20)
A.How to select a good umbrella.
B.How to sharpen the senses.
C.How to treat minor aches and pains.
D.How to predict the weather.
第3题
The phrase "this process" refers to
A.the interaction between physical and biological components of Earth"s climate system
B.the increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
C.predicting future global climate
D.global circulation models
第4题
听力原文: M: It looks like there is going to be a shower any minute now.
W: I think so too. Isn’t it strange how you can sense it?
M: I know what you mean.
W: Look at the clouds in the sky. Whenever they seems dark and low like this, you know it’s going to rain. Or look at the object that’s far away. If it seems clear to you, it’s going to pour.
M: Yes. And everything seems to have a strange smell to me then.
W: I know. And people often say it’s going to rain when they have aches and pains in certain parts of their body. My mother always complains that her knee hurts just before a storm.
M: And have you ever noticed how the animals act before a storm?
W: Sure. Horses and cows always seem to go to a protected area and huddle together.
M: Yeah. But with all these sensible signs, how can we carry an umbrella with us now?
What is the main topic of the conversation?
A.How to select a good umbrella.
B.How to treat minor aches and pains.
C.How to sharpen the senses.
D.How to predict the weather.
第5题
Although it may sound funny to call scientists weather-watchers, there's【B3】funny about what they do. Specifically, weather-watchers are meteorologists(气象学者)【B4】work for the United States Weather Bureau. They study the ocean of【B5】that surrounds the earth and, with the information they get, predict our weather.
The atmosphere【B6】in height from 300 to 700 miles above the earth and is divided into a series of layers or shells. The layer that is most interesting【B7】the meteorologist is the troposphere(对流层) or the layer closest to the earth.【B8】is in the troposphere that all our weather is formed.
【B9】causes our weather is really a very simple process. Endless streams of hot air push up from the earth. As they rise, they are【B10】by the freezing temperatures of the【B11】troposphere. Once it has become cold and heavy, the air【B12】back toward the earth, but it【B13】move down because of the rising hot air. In the meantime, planetary winds, which blow around the earth, or air currents keep both the cold air mass as well as the hot air mass in【B14】.
There are two additional factors that influence these moving air masses.【B15】is water vapor that the rising hot air soaks up like a sponge. The other is temperature Which, by cooling the hot air, forces it to【B16】out its water vapor in the form. of rain, snow, or sleet(雨夹雪).
These air masses【B17】push against each other with tremendous pressure. When a high-pressure mass of air succeeds【B18】pushing out a low-pressure air mass, we have clearing conditions and【B19】weather. When a low-pressure air mass forces out a high-pressure mass of air, stormy weather can be【B20】.
【B1】
A.when
B.as
C.while
D.if
第6题
When did it begin to rain yesterday afternoon?
A.It didn't rain at all.
B.Before Tom got home.
C.After Tom got home.
第7题
Acid rain is produced when atmospheric moisture combines with pollutants from paper mill (造纸厂) , factories and automobiles.
A.Y
B.N
C.NG
第8题
When did it begin to rain?
A.At about 6:00.
B.Before Mike got home.
C.After Mike reached home.
第9题
A.They learned to navigate a car and then searched for an object.
B.They learned how to navigate and then searched the town for an object.
C.They learned to predict when a sequence of dots would appear on a screen.
D.They learned to predict how a sequence of dots would appear on a screen.
第10题
When does the man think it will rain?
A.Maybe later in the day.
B.Very soon.
C.This morning.