By drawing on the World Banks projections of socioeconomic development over the next qua

rter century, researchers at the World Health Organization set out to forecast global trends in death and disease. Among the grim catalog of predictions are that 【M1】______ the current top two killers — heart disease and stroke — will hold on to their rankings. By 2030, however, HIV/AIDS will move up from its current ranking in fourth place to become the third- leading cause of death around the globe. One of the obvious consequences of increased development will be more deaths and injuries from traffic accidents, but 【M2】______ tobacco-related deaths are also expected to surge, accounted for 【M3】______ 10 percent of all fatalities by 2015. In the fact, WHO estimates 【M4】______ that 50 percent more people will die with illnesses due to tobacco 【M5】______ use than from AIDS that year, although tobacco itself is not listed as a cause of death. Deaths from tobacco-related conditions will be split fairly evenly among cancers, cardiovascular diseases, and respiratory illnesses. The report, that is the most comprehensive of its kind, 【M6】______ does contain some bright spots. For example, it predicts that maternal deaths associated with pregnancy and childbirth will become more common, as will infant mortality and deaths 【M7】______ from nutritional causes. Because increased prosperity and 【M8】______ better medical care, the risk of death for children younger than 5 is projecting to decrease by more than 40 percent by 2030. 【M9】______ The death rate from tuberculosis, malaria, and other non-HIV infectious disease will also decline. And people all over the 【M10】______ world will be living longer lives, with the largest gains occurring in Africa and South Asia.

【M1】